Last month I told you the market was difficult and that experience was the thing that separated agents who were still transacting from those who were not. The past few weeks have reinforced that view. They have also given me something more useful than an opinion. They have given me results.
A tough market does something interesting to the real estate industry. It sorts people out. Agents who built their confidence on a rising tide find themselves adrift when conditions turn. The energy drops, the phone calls become less frequent, the follow-up less disciplined. We have seen this across the North Shore and it is not hard to spot. What we decided, as a team, was that this market was not something to endure. It was something to attack.
The deals have been hard won. Vendors and buyers are still navigating a significant gap in expectations and bridging that gap requires more work, more creativity and more persistence than it did eighteen months ago. What we have done in response is reassess how we run every campaign from the ground up. The broad shift has been toward intensity in the first fourteen days. That is the window that matters. Find the buyer early, create momentum, and close before the campaign loses energy. We are now running four to six open homes in a single week on active listings rather than the standard two. We have implemented new marketing initiatives, new follow-up processes and new ways of matching known buyers to incoming stock before it even hits the portals. The difference in buyer engagement has been immediate and measurable.
What I am noticing most broadly right now is a narrowing of the gap between what vendors want and what buyers will pay. That alignment is what makes transactions possible and for most of this year it has been missing. Its return, combined with a team that has spent the past two months sharpening every part of how we work, has us heading into spring in better shape than most.
■ INSIDE THE DEAL
It is the question every vendor asks first. What is my property worth? The honest answer is that it is not a number sitting in a database waiting to be found. It is a number I construct carefully from a series of overlapping inputs, and around the harbourfront that process is considerably more complex than most people realise.
The first thing most people do is check one of the automated estimate platforms. Domain, realestate.com.au, PropTrack. These tools are not without value but on the harbourfront they are often spectacularly wrong. They work by finding comparable recent sales and extrapolating from them. In a housing estate where ten homes have sold between $1.1 million and $1.13 million with the same floor plan, finishes and outlook, that methodology makes perfect sense. Here it does not. Within a matter of metres you might have a $20 million trophy home next to a block of $700,000 studios, next to a row of $7 million terraces, next to a $1.5 million two bedroom apartment. Too little data, too much variation, no ability to account for the factors that actually drive value. Treat those estimates as a conversation starter, not a basis for decision making.
“On the harbourfront, value is not found in a database. It is constructed from knowledge that does not exist anywhere online.”
The process starts with comparable sales, as legislation requires. But in a market this tightly held, recent comparables are scarce. I regularly look back three, five, even six years to find a useful reference point, then apply adjustments for market movement, conditions at the time and how the deal actually happened. A sale at auction with two committed bidders tells a very different story to one that happened quietly off market with a single buyer at an asking price.
Beyond comparables I weigh condition and renovation quality, views and their permanence, building and strata health, size, configuration, rarity of the property type, and broader economic conditions affecting buyer confidence. The final input is the one no algorithm will ever have. Who is in the market right now, wanting a property like this one, and how ready are they to act. After nearly twenty years on the harbourfront I know the active buyers. I know what they have inspected, what they have lost and what they have passed on. I know whether there is one buyer for a property or four. That knowledge changes the number and it changes the strategy for achieving it.
■ FROM THE ARCHIVES
How the Milson name almost vanished from the map· Railway Commissioners’ Decision Angers Milson Family · Australian Historical Society Protests
“The Railway Commissioners have decided to change the name of Milson’s Point to Kirribilli. The decision has given rise to much annoyance on the part of the family of the late James Milson, after whom the historic and well-known spot is named, and in spite of repeated requests by the survivors of Mr Milson and by hundreds of other residents of the district, and the Australian Historical Society, the Commissioners have turned their deafest ear.” The Sunday Times, Early 1930’s
When the Harbour Bridge opened in 1932, the Railway Commissioners had to name the new station on the north side. Kirribilli was already an established place name for the peninsula. But Milsons Point was the name that had defined this specific location for a century, honouring James Milson, the first European settler on the North Shore, granted his land by Governor Brisbane in the 1820s. Giving the new bridge station a name drawn from a point nearly a mile away threatened to push the Milson name off the map entirely.
Local residents, the Milson family and the Australian Historical Society took their objections directly to the Minister for Works. The Sunday Times weighed in with considerable force:
“Milson’s Point has been so named for 100 years. There is no reason why it should be changed now, and changed to Kirribilli, which has been proved to have no meaning. Regarded from a practical point of view, the public, owing to the alteration, will only be confused as to their destination.” — The Sunday Times, early 1930s
Their case was put firmly to the Minister. History, sentiment, practicality, all marshalled in defence of a name that had stood for a century. He listened carefully. He acknowledged the concern. He then delivered what must be one of the more deflating responses in the history of North Shore civic advocacy:
“A contract for the supply of nameplates for Kirribilli Station had almost been completed, and it would probably be expensive to change the name at this stage. He would consult Dr Bradfield, and if he found the change would not be too costly, the question might be considered.” — Contemporary news report, early 1930s
It was not too costly. The Milson family won. Milsons Point Station it became, and Milsons Point Station it remains today.
But the story does not end there. Both names survived and both carry their own distinct identity today. What the naming battle could not have predicted was how differently each would develop, or that Kirribilli would eventually become home to the two most prestigious official residences in the country. A name the Sunday Times declared to have no meaning turned out to be rather well chosen. Records from the period suggest Kirribilli derives from the Aboriginal word kiarabilli, meaning good fishing spot, a reference to the productive waters around the point. Looking at that harbour today, it is hard to argue with that…
DO YOU KNOW MORE?
Each month I include a piece of local history that most people have never come across. If you have old photographs, family stories or curiosities connected to Kirribilli or McMahons Point, I would genuinely love to hear about them. And if you’d like a copy of this month’s A5 history card posted to you, don’t hesitate to reach out.
Discuss the harbourside market with David:
David Gillan, Director
Ray White Lower North Shore Group
0411 255 914
david.gillan@raywhite.com
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