The federal budget has stirred genuine uncertainty around capital gains and negative gearing. Cost of living, fuel prices, interest rates. Your financial adviser is probably fielding more calls than usual and so am I. The market across Sydney has softened and vendors in many suburbs are having to reset their expectations. But I want to tell you something specific about this harbourfront market, and about Kirribilli in particular, because the story here is quite different to the one in the headlines.
There has not been a single house sale in Kirribilli since November 2025. Not one. McMahons Point has seen five house transactions in the same period, which tells its own story, but even that is well below what you would normally expect from a suburb of its size and desirability. Across the harbourfront as a whole, the house market has been essentially frozen. Not because buyers have disappeared, but because sellers have. In the meantime the inquiry has not stopped. I am being contacted constantly by serious buyers who want a property on this harbour and simply cannot find the right one.
What that means for property owners here is straightforward. What you own is something that a significant number of well resourced buyers want right now.
That is not a soft market position. That is genuine scarcity, and scarcity on the harbourfront has always told its own story regardless of what the broader conditions are doing.
The buyers I’m speaking to are not waiting for rates to drop or for Canberra to sort itself out. Many of them have already sold. They are coming largely from the Upper North Shore, and from suburbs closer in like Mosman, Longueville and Northbridge, with capital freed up and a clear idea of where they want to land next. Downsizing in the traditional sense perhaps, but upgrading in every way that matters to them.
One footnote. If you own a one or two bedroom investment property locally, that is a different story and probably a longer conversation worth having offline. You know where to find me.
There’s a concept from Harvard negotiation theory called BATNA — Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. Essentially it asks: if this deal doesn’t happen, what does that person do next? Understanding someone’s alternative to buying your property tells you a great deal about how seriously they want it and how far they’re willing to go.
I want to be clear about how I use this, because it’s not about finding a buyer’s weak spot. It’s about understanding genuine commitment. A buyer who truly has no good alternative, who has been searching for eight months, who has lost two properties at auction already, whose children are enrolled in a school two streets away, is a different proposition entirely to someone who is casually interested and has three other suburbs on their list.
In this market I have some advantages that buyers may not realise. Our Ray White platform gives me instant visibility over a buyer’s inspection history across the network, how many properties they’ve visited, whether they’ve held contracts before, whether they’ve made offers elsewhere and at what point they walked away. That data, combined with nearly twenty years of open home conversations on this peninsula, gives me a picture of a buyer that goes well beyond what they tell me on the day.
“The buyer who has spent six months at our open homes is not the same as the buyer who showed up last Saturday for the first time.”
Because supply here is so consistently low, it’s genuinely common for a serious buyer to spend six months or more attending open homes before they find the right property. In that time I get to know them. I know what they passed on and why. I know what they stretched for and lost. I know whether they talk about a property in terms of how it feels or purely in terms of what it costs. All of that informs how I read their sincerity when it matters.
What this means if you’re selling
When I tell you a buyer is genuine, it’s not instinct or optimism. It’s based on a detailed picture built over time. And when I tell you a buyer is at their limit, that’s based on the same information.
The best results I deliver come from knowing the difference between those two things before anyone sits down to negotiate. That knowledge is one of the most valuable things I bring to a campaign, and it’s something no amount of online research gives a vendor working with an agent who doesn’t know the buyers in the room.
■ FROM THE ARCHIVES
· Encounter With a Burglar · Carabella Street Resident Shot Twice · Policeman Seriously Injured
He wasn’t wrong. Carabella Street in 1909 was exactly what it is today, one of the most sought-after addresses on the peninsula, running down to the water on the eastern side of the point. Russell Sinclair recovered. Constable Gates, 21 stitches and all, told the Evening News reporter he was feeling very well, “considering the knocking about he had received.”
The homes on Carabella Street that witnessed all of this are still standing. Some of them are among the finest in the suburb. Next time you walk past, it’s worth a thought.
Do you know more?
I’m always looking for Kirribilli stories: crime, characters, old photographs, family histories connected to the streets and houses here. If you have a connection to any of the families or addresses mentioned, or if you’d like a copy of this month’s A5 history card posted to you, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me.
Reach out to David to discuss the harbourside market:
David Gillan, Director
Ray White Lower North Shore Group
0411 255 914
david.gillan@raywhite.com
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